WASHINGTON, Feb 20, 2026, 05:34 (EST)
Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes fell unexpectedly in January, with realtors pointing to a lack of listings even after mortgage rates cooled. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index, which tracks signed contracts before closings, slipped 0.8% to 70.9; economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 1.3% rise. (Reuters)
That matters now because the market is moving into the early spring window with rates near 6% but resale supply still tight. “Improving affordability conditions have yet to induce more buying activity,” NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, warning that more qualified buyers could simply push prices higher unless supply rises. Contract signings fell 5.7% in the Northeast and 4.5% in the South, while the Midwest rose 5.0% and the West gained 4.3%; Phoenix, Boston and Charlotte were among the metros with the biggest annual increases. (nar.realtor)
Freddie Mac’s weekly survey showed the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate fell to 6.01% in the week ending Feb. 19 from 6.09% a week earlier, while the 15-year rate eased to 5.35%. “Mortgage rates dropped again this week, now down to their lowest level since September of 2022,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, who also pointed to a pickup in refinancing as rates fell. (GlobeNewswire)
Mortgage applications rose 2.8% last week, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported, as refinancing demand picked up even as purchase applications slipped. The Refinance Index rose 7% from the prior week and was 132% higher than a year earlier, while the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 3%; refinancing made up 57.4% of applications and the average contract rate for a 30-year fixed conforming loan — within size limits set for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — eased to 6.17%. “Mortgage applications rose last week as the lowest rates in four weeks helped to revive some refinance activity,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s vice president and deputy chief economist. (MBA)
Builders ended 2025 with more groundbreakings, with housing starts rising 6.2% in December to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.404 million units, the Census Bureau said — a pace adjusted for seasonal swings and expressed as if it ran for a full year. Single-family starts rose 4.1% to 981,000, while starts for buildings with five units or more were 402,000; permits climbed 4.3% to 1.448 million, but single-family permits slipped to 881,000. Completions rose 2.3% to 1.525 million, and overall starts were 7.3% below December 2024. (Census.gov)
Even with lower rates, the resale market remains thin: existing-home sales fell 8.4% in January to a 3.91 million annual pace, and unsold inventory stood at 1.22 million units, or a 3.7-month supply, NAR said earlier this month. The median existing-home price rose 0.9% from a year earlier to $396,800. NAR’s next existing-home sales report, covering February, is due March 10. (nar.realtor)
NAR describes its pending home sales index as a leading indicator that generally moves ahead of closed existing-home sales by a month or two because contracts come before transactions are completed. Its next pending home sales report, covering February, is scheduled for March 17 at 10 a.m. Eastern. (nar.realtor)
A bigger drop in mortgage rates could still draw more buyers off the sidelines, but the market has a habit of stalling when listings do not build. If supply fails to rise as more households qualify — or if bond yields push borrowing costs back up — prices could stay firm and sales could remain stuck.
For now, the latest releases sketch a market with demand trying to stir and supply still constrained. That leaves buyers watching rates and listings, and builders watching whether their late-2025 momentum carries into spring.
